Rates of change are not levels
Suppose a basket rises from £100 to £110, then to £112.20. Inflation slows from 10% to 2%, but the basket remains above its starting price. Lower inflation generally means prices rise more slowly, not that past increases are undone. Falling overall prices would be deflation.
Your household is not the average
An official index combines many categories. A renter with high travel costs experiences a different mix from a homeowner who walks to work. Income changes matter too: affordability depends on both spending and the resources available to meet it.
Treat cultural signals as hypotheses
The lipstick index, doom spending or craft-shopping trends may suggest questions worth investigating. A viral anecdote is not a validated recession indicator. Ask how the measure is defined, whether it has predicted outcomes consistently and what other factors might explain it.
Read several measures together
Output, employment, income and household conditions describe different parts of the economy. A serious downturn assessment needs more than one meme or a single quarter’s experience. Econometrics offers tools for testing claims, while behavioural economics helps explain responses to uncertainty.